Rekt Mkts: Korea reverses while crypto holds up

Yday's Korea bounce did not last long. KOSPI closed down 5.7% today, with SK Hynix down 8.3% and Samsung down 7.6%, after the US had its own proper tech selloff. New US tariffs also came into effect overnight, so the market looks quite a lot less comfortable than it did 24 hours ago. The interesting bit is US futures are not extending the move for now and crypto is also holding up reasonably well. I don't think that means the lows are in or everything is suddenly fine...it just means this is still a confused market rather than a clean one-way panic. I'm still happier being patient and looking for specific trades than forcing broad risk.

SPX closed down 1.2% yday and NDQ fell 1.9%. This morning futures are up very marginally. Rates and oil are still the awkward part. The latest Treasury close had the 10Y at 4.70%, up around 4.6bps yday, while the 30Y was 5.17%, up around 2.4bps. WTI futures have pulled back 2.5% today to around $89.88, but the Iran conflict and shipping disruption are still keeping the inflation risk alive. Gold is up 0.4% around $4,063. That combination does not give me much confidence to chase a tiny futures bounce. Higher oil feeds the inflation problem, rates are already high and the book is still about 63% cash. Maybe stocks ignore it again, they have ignored plenty over the last five years, but after yday's PA I still don't feel any urgency to pay up.

The clearest message yday was that huge AI spend is not automatically enough for the stocks writing the cheques. GOOGL fell around 7% after lifting its capex guidance and TSLA dropped around 14% after missing earnings, while NVDA fell 1.6% and META fell 3.4%. Without any reason other than I like buying dips I do think these dips are indeed juicy...like when is the last time you could buy GOOGL stock down 7.5% on the day? So I did nibble a bit there on GOOGL and TSLA purely for a short-term bounce/scalp. Memory in the US has still been strong (frustrating for me as a buyer at lower prices). MU actually closed up 3.2% at $990 and SNDK gained 0.7% yday, but Korea then completely reversed its prior bounce today. SK Hynix and Samsung falling 8.3% and 7.6% in one session is not confirmation of a clean memory breakout, even with Alphabet's capex guidance in the background. The next big event is gonna be SK Hynix earnings on Jul 29th followed by SanDisk on August 5th. As I've mentioned before my gut says that the downside risk is a lot bigger than the upside risk given rallies keep getting sold, although strength and outperformance in memory this week does make me rethink that a little. The plan is likely to remain flat unless we get a juicy dip to buy.

Crypto continues to hold up better than equities - I do think it's notable to see like a 2% down day in NDQ and BTC not really flinch. BTC is around $65.0k and roughly flat from the prior close, with ETH at $1,881 and SOL at $75. That's a better relative performance than crypto has managed for much of this year. I still think it still needs to get back through $67k and hold it before I would call this a proper breakout, but the fact it is not falling apart with tech is worth paying attention to. Maybe there is just a decent buyer underneath it...I don't know yet, but the PA is better than the headlines. Robinhood continues to be active - yesterday I rotated all of my CASHCAT into PONS which now remains the only coin I hold in the ecosystem; it's up about 20% today alongside a general rally int he rest of the RH ecosystem. Do not underestimate the lindy effect here, each day RH does not die, and each day it grows in terms of TVL, volume, users etc the more likely it is to stay, and I still think it's kind of insane that you can buy the biggest launchpad with over 50% mkt share at just a $34m mkt cap. 21% of the supply has been burnt from buybacks, with another $300k currently being twapped as fees continue to accrue - with memes it's tough coz you always get vamped and capital is still too thin to not be rotational, but I feel like with PONS which has continuous bid pressure, is mechanically connected to the performance and growth of the Robinhood Eco and actually has cashflows in order to be able to attract capital outside of the degenerate gambler crowd...it's the best bet to be able to hold something as a proxy for chain growth hence why I'm all in on that one. Let's see how it goes today. Good luck.